Study: Moon Cycle Change to Increase US Coastal Flooding in Mid-2030s
2021-07-19
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1A new study predicts that a changing moon cycle will increase high-tide flooding across U.S. coastal areas in the mid-2030s.
2The finding is based on ocean tide data collected from 89 coastal areas covering every U.S. state and territory except for Alaska.
3This data was examined along with flooding records and predictions for future sea level rise stretching into the year 2080.
4Research results showed that the combined effects of rising sea levels linked to climate change and natural changes in ocean tides will lead to increases in coastal flooding.
5The prediction was recently reported in a study in Nature Climate Change.
6The study was led by members of the U.S. space agency NASA's Sea Level Change Team.
7The lead researcher of the study was Phil Thompson, a member of the Sea Level Change Team and director of the University of Hawaii's Sea Level Center.
8Thompson said in a statement he expects the biggest increases to happen along the U.S. Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coastlines, which include Hawaii and other Pacific islands.
9This is important because this is where high-tide flooding goes from being mostly "a local or regional issue and becomes a national issue affecting a majority of our nation's coastlines," he said.
10The researchers note that many U.S. coastal areas, especially along the Atlantic coast, are already experiencing such flooding.
11High-tide flooding happens when tides reach anywhere from 0.5 meters to 0.6 above the daily average high tide, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
12NOAA reported more than 600 incidents of this kind of flooding -- also known as "sunny day" flooding -- in 2019.
13Such activity is expected to worsen and lead to longer lasting floods as high tides increase in the future and sea levels keep rising.
14Ben Hamlington was a co-writer of the study.
15He is with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California and also the leader of the Sea Level Change Team.
16He said in a statement the findings can be an important resource for U.S. coastal planners who may be centered more on preparing for extreme events rather than more high-tide flooding.
17For planning purposes, "it's important to know when we'll see an increase," Hamlington said.
18Thompson agrees that results of the study can be used by scientists, engineers and government officials who are used to preparing for rare, severe weather events such as a 100-year storm.
19"But we demonstrate that it is important to plan for extreme months or seasons during which the number of flooding episodes, rather than the magnitude, is exceptional," he said.
20The prediction of increased high tides starting in the mid-2030s is linked to a normal moon cycle.
21NASA says the cycle -- which affects how Earth lines up with the moon and the sun -- changes our planet's gravitational pull.
22This, in turn, affects ocean tides.
23The cycle causes "a regular wobble in the moon's orbit that takes 18.6 years to complete," NASA explains.
24In half of the moon's cycle, it causes high tides on Earth to be lower than normal and low tides to be higher than normal.
25In the other half of the cycle, high tides get higher and low tides get lower.
26Currently, NASA says the moon is in the cycle that intensifies high tides.
27And while there have been issues with high-tide flooding, there has not been enough sea level rise to cause high tides "to regularly top" flooding levels, the researchers said.
28But the next time the cycle comes around again, in the mid-2030s, sea level rise "will have been at work" during those years, NASA noted.
29The higher seas, combined with the new moon cycle, "will cause a leap in flood numbers on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii, and Guam."
30Such flooding could leave people in cities dealing with floods "every day or two," the research team predicts.
31I'm Bryan Lynn.
1A new study predicts that a changing moon cycle will increase high-tide flooding across U.S. coastal areas in the mid-2030s. 2The finding is based on ocean tide data collected from 89 coastal areas covering every U.S. state and territory except for Alaska. 3This data was examined along with flooding records and predictions for future sea level rise stretching into the year 2080. 4Research results showed that the combined effects of rising sea levels linked to climate change and natural changes in ocean tides will lead to increases in coastal flooding. 5The prediction was recently reported in a study in Nature Climate Change. 6The study was led by members of the U.S. space agency NASA's Sea Level Change Team. 7The lead researcher of the study was Phil Thompson, a member of the Sea Level Change Team and director of the University of Hawaii's Sea Level Center. 8Thompson said in a statement he expects the biggest increases to happen along the U.S. Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coastlines, which include Hawaii and other Pacific islands. 9This is important because this is where high-tide flooding goes from being mostly "a local or regional issue and becomes a national issue affecting a majority of our nation's coastlines," he said. 10The researchers note that many U.S. coastal areas, especially along the Atlantic coast, are already experiencing such flooding. 11High-tide flooding happens when tides reach anywhere from 0.5 meters to 0.6 above the daily average high tide, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 12NOAA reported more than 600 incidents of this kind of flooding -- also known as "sunny day" flooding -- in 2019. 13Such activity is expected to worsen and lead to longer lasting floods as high tides increase in the future and sea levels keep rising. 14Ben Hamlington was a co-writer of the study. 15He is with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California and also the leader of the Sea Level Change Team. 16He said in a statement the findings can be an important resource for U.S. coastal planners who may be centered more on preparing for extreme events rather than more high-tide flooding. 17For planning purposes, "it's important to know when we'll see an increase," Hamlington said. 18Thompson agrees that results of the study can be used by scientists, engineers and government officials who are used to preparing for rare, severe weather events such as a 100-year storm. 19"But we demonstrate that it is important to plan for extreme months or seasons during which the number of flooding episodes, rather than the magnitude, is exceptional," he said. 20The prediction of increased high tides starting in the mid-2030s is linked to a normal moon cycle. 21NASA says the cycle -- which affects how Earth lines up with the moon and the sun -- changes our planet's gravitational pull. This, in turn, affects ocean tides. 22The cycle causes "a regular wobble in the moon's orbit that takes 18.6 years to complete," NASA explains. 23In half of the moon's cycle, it causes high tides on Earth to be lower than normal and low tides to be higher than normal. 24In the other half of the cycle, high tides get higher and low tides get lower. 25Currently, NASA says the moon is in the cycle that intensifies high tides. 26And while there have been issues with high-tide flooding, there has not been enough sea level rise to cause high tides "to regularly top" flooding levels, the researchers said. 27But the next time the cycle comes around again, in the mid-2030s, sea level rise "will have been at work" during those years, NASA noted. 28The higher seas, combined with the new moon cycle, "will cause a leap in flood numbers on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii, and Guam." 29Such flooding could leave people in cities dealing with floods "every day or two," the research team predicts. 30I'm Bryan Lynn.